Hondurans face elections under shadow of Donald Trump, fraud allegations

By Gonzalo Zegarra, CNN

Honduras will hold general elections marked by pre-emptive allegations of voting fraud and an intervention by the United States.

The presidential race has been clouded by uncertainty. Out of the several candidates running to succeed Honduran President Xiomara Castro, three have emerged as the frontrunners, but there is no clear favourite to win.

"We are in an election with a deep political and economic divide," political scientist Héctor Soto Caballero told CNN. "It highlights the clash between two completely different visions for the country."

Castro's term is due to end on 27 January, which would mark the first time a left-wing president has finished a term in the country. Husband and leftist former president Manuel Zelaya was overthrown in a coup in 2009.

The president supports the left-wing candidate of the ruling Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE), lawyer Rixi Moncada, who was the country's first female defence minister and promised to continue Castro's agenda.

While Honduras' economy has shown moderate growth under Castro, who has maintained her social protection focus and continued the International Monetary Fund's credit programme, the campaign has shifted focus to other polarising issues.

"What's at stake isn't the typical campaign promises, with problems related to health, education and security," Soto said. "LIBRE came in and proposed a discussion that touches the very foundations of the system - democratising the economy.

"It's not proposing this through dialogue with the business sector. Instead, it's confrontational - this has polarised society."

Also in the running is centrist-liberal Salvador Nasralla, a populist of the Liberal Party. The television star is a former ally of Castro who served as her vice president until last year.

He has called for labour reforms and stronger trade relations with the West.

The National Party candidate is right-wing businessman and former Tegucigalpa Mayor Nasry 'Tito' Asfura. The construction magnate, who is running on a free market platform, has been endorsed by US President Donald Trump.

Allegations of fraud

Both the ruling party and the opposition have fanned allegations of voting fraud before Sunday's election, which critics say undermines the system's integrity.

The tense climate is putting pressure on the National Electoral Council (CNE), an independent body led by three councillors from each of the country's major political parties.

Recently, Honduras Armed Forces joint chiefs of staff chairman Roosevelt Hernández asked the council for a copy of the presidential ballot records on election day, something not stipulated by law. CNE president Ana Paola Hall described the move as "interference".

"The Armed Forces is disobeying the National Electoral Council (CNE)," said Sánchez, who expressed fears that they would use force, if the results are not recognised.

In that regard, she said the situation would follow "the same script as Nicaragua and Venezuela", two nations whose electoral processes have been denounced and are not recognised by numerous countries in the region.

This week, Castro said on X that her government "upholds and honours" the principles of personal freedom, democracy and accountability, among others.

International organisations have aired their concerns. Americas director at Human Rights Watch Juanita Goebertus warned that "allegations of possible fraud, aggressive moves by both prosecutors and the army and political deadlock in the electoral authority are threatening Hondurans' right to participate in free and fair elections."

The Organisation of American States (OAS) and the European Union have also called on authorities to guarantee the independence of the electoral body.

CNE co-director Eduardo Fuentes acknowledged that "there were atypical circumstances and very conflicting positions", but assured that the institution has met most of its duties.

Honduras' foreign policy and Washington's influence

Adding to the tensions is pressure from the US, Honduras's largest trading partner.

Trump endorsed right-wing candidate Asfura this week, saying on Truth Social they could work together "to combat the narco-communists and provide the necessary aid to the Honduran people". Trump added that Asfura "stands up for democracy and fights against Maduro", the Venezuelan president who is facing a months-long pressure campaign from the US.

On Friday, Trump posted again, saying he would pardon former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez of the conservative National Party, who is serving a 45-year prison sentence in the US, after being convicted of drug trafficking.

Soto says opposition candidates have signalled their ideological ties to Washington, while the ruling party has committed to maintaining a transactional relationship with the US.

"If Nasralla wins, he has openly shown himself to be accommodating to the US leadership," Soto said. "In Asfura's case, he wouldn't be much opposition [to the White House] - it would be a close influence."

Castro's ruling party has met many of Washington's demands on security and migration issues, while avoiding direct confrontation. The country is heavily impacted by US immigration measures - such as the end of the temporary protected status (TPS) for immigrants, which affected tens of thousands of Hondurans in the US - and remittances, which represent approximately 25 percent of Honduras' GDP, according to World Bank data.

Sánchez pointed out that the relationship "could change drastically if the opposition wins", saying Trump would not be satisfied, if the ruling party stayed in power.

Honduras has fewer tools than other countries to confront this asymmetrical relationship with the White House.

"We depend more on the United States and on relations in Central America," Sánchez said, recalling Trump had already threatened to impose taxes on remittances, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not include Honduras in his tour of Central America and the Caribbean.

Another key aspect of Honduras' foreign policy is its relationship with Venezuela, whose ruling Chavismo movement strongly supported Castro's husband after his coup.

"That built longstanding relations," Soto said. "The government is definitely a close actor, but it has understood that it is a complex, uncomfortable relationship."

Castro was one of the few leaders in the region who recognised Nicolás Maduro's 2024 election victory claim. Her handpicked successor, Moncada, has avoided commenting on Venezuela during the campaign, while opposition candidates assured they would break relations with Caracas, if they became president.

According to Soto, if tensions between the US and Venezuela were to escalate into a military conflict, it would lead to an increased US presence in Honduras, where American military personnel are stationed at La Palmerola airbase.

"From a hemispheric perspective, it would have an impact, at least logistically," he said. "If there were a government more aligned with Washington, it would be an opportunity to foster closer ties."

The White House also faces another challenge in Honduras - China's growing influence throughout Latin America.

Honduras established diplomatic ties with China in 2023 and severed relations with Taiwan. However, Soto points out that there has been no significant progress toward a free trade agreement, since relations were established.

Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSII), a conservative thinktank based in Florida, said in a recent report that the election outcomes could "either deepen Beijing's foothold or recalibrate toward US-aligned positions".

-CNN