More uncertainty for New Caledonia as French government falls

The fall of the French government following a vote of defiance against its Prime Minister François Bayrou has cast more uncertainty for New Caledonia and a recently-signed deal regarding its political and institutional future.

On Monday evening (Paris time), a majority of French National Assembly MPs expressed defiance against Bayrou, who had himself placed his political future in the hands of the Lower House.

One hundred and ninety-four MPs voted in support and 364 voted against Bayrou.

In a move widely described as a "political suicide", Bayrou said he wanted the vote to take place because he required the confidence of parliament ahead of a contested cost-cutting Budget (appropriation) Bill for 2026.

Bayrou came to power about nine months ago. He is the fourth PM to be appointed by French President Macron over the past four years.

As part of Bayrou's Cabinet, as Minister for Overseas, former PM Manuel Valls has since February 2025 spent a significant amount of time travelling to New Caledonia in a bid to bring all opposing political leaders around the same table.

During a special meeting in Bougival on 12 July, following ten days of tense negotiations, an agreement was signed by all of the parties represented at New Caledonia's local Congress.

But one of the main components of the pro-independence movement, the FLNKS, denounced the agreement a few days later, saying its negotiators had no mandate to sign the text.

Despite another visit by Valls in August to inaugurate a "drafting" committee tasked to translate the Bougival deal into legal and constitutional jargon, and collateral attempts to talk to the FLNKS, the party still opposed the Bougival text.

Saying the Bougival deal was a "lure of independence", the FLNKS invoked a profound "incompatibility" of the text with the movement's "full sovereignty" and "decolonisation" goals, and demands for this process to be completed before the next French Presidential elections, currently scheduled for April-May 2027.

Several local parties across the political chessboard (including the Wallisian-based Eveil Océanien and moderate pro-France Calédonie Ensemble) have already expressed doubts as to whether the implementation of the Bougival deal could carry any value if they had taken place without the FLNKS.

FLNKS recently warned against any attempt to "force" an agreement they are not part of, raising concerns about possible unrest similar to the riots that broke out in May 2024, causing 14 deaths and over €2 billion in material damage.

The unrest crystallised around a constitutional reform bill that sought to change the rules of eligibility for voters at local provincial elections. The bill had prompted fears among the Kanak community that it was seeking to "dilute" indigenous votes.

But in August 2025, despite the FLNKS snub, all of the other pro-independence and pro-France parties took part in "drafting" committee sessions, which are now believed to have produced a Constitutional Reform Bill.

That bill was to be tabled at both France's parliament houses (the National Assembly and the Senate) and later before a special meeting of both houses (a "Congress", a joint meeting of both Houses of Parliament).

Since then, Valls has consistently stressed that his door "remains open" to the FLNKS.

"I don't want to strike a deal against the FLNKS", he told journalists.

But the FLNKS, he said, was now different than what it was in the 1980s and 1990s.

Over the weekend, Valls also published a tribune expressing similar ideas, evoking a "plurality of pro-independence feelings" in the French national daily Le Monde.

Since august 2024, two significant parties within the FLNKS - PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) and the UPM (Progressists Union in Melanesia) formed UNI (National Union for Independence), a moderate pro-independence caucus at the local Congress - have distanced themselves from the pro-independence block.

On 6 September, Valls hailed the Bougival text as it was officially gazetted, saying this was "an important step" that showed that it is progressing in its implementation.

The publication in the French Official Gazette again triggered irate comments from the FLNKS's main component, the Union Calédonienne (UC), which contests the legitimacy of the text but says it remains open to discussion.

It also decries a passage en force and accuses France of "trying to impose its choices" and "violating international law".

Speaking on Sunday to a panel of French media, Valls did not deny that he was concerned about the impact French national political developments could have on the Bougival deal and its implementation.

"This is probably the only threat to the implementation of the text, that the national political situation will end up derailing the commitment we have made", he said.

Valls said he was still hopeful that the parliamentary process for the text and its associated documents would remain on track because the fall of Bayrou's cabinet did not affect the legislative process.

He assured the process was now launched, whoever is the next Minister for Overseas.

What now?

But now that Bayrou's Cabinet has ceased to exist, the Bougival-associated pieces of legislation, which were subjected to a tight schedule, could face further delays.

This document was initially scheduled to be presented to a cabinet meeting on 17 September. This is now unlikely.

Two other documents, an organic law and a fundamental law (a de facto constitution) are also being prepared for New Caledonia.

The "organic law" would include postponing New Caledonia's local provincial elections to mid-2026.

This was to be discussed and possibly endorsed at both the National Assembly (Lower House) and Senate (Upper House) before mid-October 2025.

In New Caledonia, the local Congress is also scheduled to vote on the same organic bill, which concerns the postponement of the provincial elections, on 15 September.

The Constitutional Bill would cover a large spectrum of issues, including the creation, for the first time in France, of a "State of New Caledonia", as well as a dual France/New Caledonia citizenship.

And before 28 February 2026, the same text would finally be put to the vote by way of a referendum for the people of New Caledonia.

Scenarios back in France

Bayrou is expected to hand over his resignation to President Macron on Tuesday morning (local Paris time).

Following the fall of his Cabinet, there are several possible options.

They include the appointment by President Macron of a new Prime Minister, who would then appoint his cabinet.

Macron's choice, this time, could lean towards either a centre-right personality, or a centre-left Socialist politician, in a bid to seal a fresh alliance on the left and garner additional support.

In the best case scenario, Valls could be re-appointed Minister for Overseas.

A worst-case scenario, sometimes mentioned by New Caledonia politicians, would be that Macron decides - as he did in June 2024 - to dissolve parliament and call for snap elections.

In this case, the whole Bougival implementation process could very well be derailed and depend on party numbers within the new National Assembly.

France's current parliament is currently divided into several groups (left, far-left, centre, right, far-right), none of which has sufficient numbers to claim a majority.