Cyclone Gabrielle Inquest: Evidence reveals extent of communication between MetService and Regional Council

This story has been updated to correct the time a local emergency was declared, clarify the regional council does not approve weather warnings. Lines have been added from MetService regarding views on upgrading the weather warning.

New evidence from MetService reveals the extent to which the forecaster sought input from the Hawke's Bay Regional Council on upgrading weather warnings for Cyclone Gabrielle.

While it is MetService's role to issue and upgrade weather warnings, MetService chief meteorologist Chris Noble says it is typical to discuss these decisions with councils, and factor in their local expert information.

He says the extent of local council input on weather warnings does vary by region.

• The second phase of a coronial inquest into the deaths of 13 people in relation to the cyclone in Hawke's Bay is underway.
• Multiple independent inquiries found widespread failures from Hawke's Bay councils and civil defence, that put hundreds of people's lives at risk
• The families of those who died in Hawke's Bay want Civil Defence and the regional council (HBRC) held to account for not evacuating residents in time
• A review of Hawke's Bay's Civil Defence after the cyclone found it was overwhelmed and underprepared, and that the national emergency management system was 'not currently fit for purpose'
• A local emergency wasn't declared in Hawke's Bay until 4:04am on 14 February, and an emergency mobile alert wasn't issued until 5:19am, by which time people had already died and hundreds were stranded on rooftops hoping to be rescued.

On Friday, a new witness statement from Metservice's Noble listed more than 10 phone calls and messages between the forecaster and HBRC about the severity of the weather.

He explained to the court how there was some resistance from HBRC hydrologist Craig Goodier to upgrade warnings.

"There were opposing views on the need to escalate to a red warning," he said.

Noble was asked if it was accurate to use the word 'opposed' when describing the regional council's views on upgrading to a red warning.

He said on reflection he would have used different wording.

"The way I would have phrased it personally, is that there were opposing views on the need for escalation to a red warning," he said.

Noble said the council didn't exactly say 'no, don't go red'.

"But it's clear from the records we have at the time that there were opposing views on the need for red, MetService was clearly concerned and Hawke's Bay had a different view," he said.

At the Hastings District Court on Friday, Noble told the court it was clear from communication records that MetService forecasters were concerned about the cyclone because information showed it would be a "rare and significant event".

"It is not often we are impacted by such a powerful cyclone. Meteorologists felt uncomfortable sitting on an orange weather warning in the face of such large rainfall predictions.

"Their concern was for the broader impacts across the region... flooding, landslides and potential for damage to roading and bridging," he said.

Just after 3pm on Monday 13 February, MetService upgraded its warnings for Hawke's Bay to 'red'.

"It become increasingly apparent it was going to be an extreme and unusual event... switching to 'red' was one messaging tools we had to convey that to the public.

"It reflects MetServices' concern that we were facing an extreme event," said Noble.

Call logs from MetService reveal that on the morning of 12 February, a forecaster called the regional council to discuss upgrading the orange warning to a red. However, no one from the council called back until four hours later, and it was hydrologist Craig Goodier.

12 February 2:46pm

"Craig told me that the numbers are not concerning enough and he is happy with the warning staying Orange. He said that the likely impact [from] this will be very localised and they are well prepared with emergency management/civil defence staff already deployed," read the statement.

"He also mentioned that the catchment area is large enough to deal with the amount of rain in the forecast. I suggested we should have another conversation on Monday (13th) morning as this is a significant event."

13 February 8:04am

"I talked to Craig at Hawke's Bay Council. I told him the rainfall warning numbers were unlikely to change by much in the next issue.

"He said they're happy to stay on orange at the moment as they've got their people deployed ready anyway."

13 February 12:07pm

An internal message between Metservice forecasters was also documented:

"I have just been talking to Hawkes Bay, I am a little uneasy about their Orange status.

"They are comfortable that the rainfall amounts will be ok for Orange, but don't have a feel for the combined effect with strong winds. I may bring it to the crisis meeting table at 12:15pm."

After the cyclone, MetService carried out an investigation of its warning system, and said the last opportunity to upgrade its weather warnings, that would have had a meaningful outcome, was at 10:06am on Sunday 12 February.

"The hydrologists were opposed to a red warning being issued, citing high confidence in their flood modelling which indicated no major concerns," read the report.

Goodier is due to give evidence next week. However, parts of his witness statement were put to meteorologist Chris Noble in court. In his evidence, Goodier said it was "unexpected" that MetService was engaging with him about forecasts and weather warnings.

Noble disagreed, saying Goodier was considered the local expert on these matters.

"We've interacted with Mr Goodier a number of time so he is familiar to the team. We went straight to the expert," he said.

He disputed Goodier's claims about a rain radar not working properly, saying MetService's data shows their system was operational right up until the afternoon of 14 February.

"Metservice's rain radar was fully functional," he said.

Authorities 'didn't want to unecessarily wake up the Esk Valley'

An earlier witness from Fire and Emergency gave an insight into the meetings between Civil Defence, emergency services, and councils in the early hours of the morning of 14 February at the Group Emergency Operations Centre.

The discussions were around whether to declare an emergency and issue a mobile alert to evacuate, as river levels had reached their highest ever recorded level in Esk Valley and 111 calls were coming in from people trapped in floodwaters.

Hawke's Bay's Fire and Emergency senior station officer, Bruce Botherway said at 2:19am when he saw the email about the river levels, he was worried about residents and emergency crews in the area.

He explained that it was about this time the Hastings District Council and Hawke's Bay Civil Defence Group started seriously considering declaring an emergency.

"While some personnel thought declarations and EMA's (mobile alerts) should have occured at that stage, others were concerned about over-reacting," he said.

Botherway said the Group Emergency Operations Centre didn't want to hit go on official evacuation orders.

"They didn't want to unecessarily wake up the Esk Valley... also wanted to avoid people attempting to evacuate in the dark while floodwaters were rising.

"The whole situation was complicated and the fact the Esk Valley crosses two territorial boundaries as well," he said.

Under further questioning from the coroner's lawyer, Nick Whittington, Botherway said himself and St John Ambulance were in favour of declaring an emergency.

Whittington asked if "waking people up" was a legitimate concern, or if people would have understood the precaution.

"I think it's a genuine concern, however it shouldn't be given a heavy weight," said Botherway.

The inquest is set down for another two weeks, with witnesses from Hawke's Bay Regional Council and Civil Defence expected to present their evidence next week.

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