Activists from the Ocean Rebellion group protest outside the International Maritime Organization at the end of the 80th Marine Protection Committee conference in London on 7 July, 2023. Photo: AFP / Henry Nicholls
The climate change minister is considering whether greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation and shipping should be included in the net zero 2050 climate targets to limit global warming.
Aviation and shipping made up about 9 percent of New Zealand's net domestic emissions, but were excluded from the country's net zero commitment by 2050 under the Paris Accord agreement.
However shipping and aviation emissions were included in the government's annual Greenhouse Gas Inventory.
New Zealand was one of more than 190 countries also part of the Paris agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to keep warming within 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Countries like the United Kingdom, France, Japan and South Korea counted emissions from international shipping and aviation in their targets to some degree. However large emitting nations like China, India and Russia did not.
Furthermore, the United States was expected to leave the Paris Accord by 2026, after President Donald Trump signed the executive order to leave it again on being re-elected in January.
Climate Change Commission wants all emissions accounted in targets
The Climate Change Commission carried out its first emissions target review in November, recommending that the transport-related emissions should be included in the targets (PDF).
It said in the report there had been significant change in recent years, including greater severity and scale of global warming impacts than what the global science community understood when the target was set.
"Many comparable countries have by now set targets that are more ambitious than the current target of Aotearoa New Zealand," it read.
"The increased risks and impacts of climate change have implications for Aotearoa New Zealand's future. Delaying action transfers costs and risks to future generations."
The Commission also warned about the urgency of the mission to prevent further global warming.
"Scientific evidence is increasingly clear that global action is insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5C outright," it said in its report from November.
"This implies that even greater reductions are needed in the near and longer terms to limit as much as possible the amount by which the world exceeds 1.5C, and then to potentially bring the temperature back down again."
It said if no action was taken to reduce emissions from these sectors, they would likely grow to be more than one third of the country's domestic net emissions by 2050.
New Zealand relied on international shipping and aviation for tourism, business, imports and exports and passenger travel.
With carbon dioxide the bulk of the emissions from these industries, the Commission suggested a shift to alternative fuels like sustainable aviation fuel for aviation, and to biofuels or green hydrogen for shipping to make significant reductions.
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts. Photo: RNZ / Cole Eastham-Farrelly
Minister to decide on aviation, shipping emissions
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts was yet to make a decision, expected to decide by November.
An amendment to the Climate Change Response Act would be required to bring these emissions into the targets.
In a statement, Watts said New Zealand was not alone in excluding these emissions in domestic targets, and they were still monitored.
"Globally, most countries have not included emissions from international aviation and shipping in their domestic targets," he said.
"International shipping and aviation emissions are addressed through globally negotiated mechanisms that New Zealand is a member of.
"The International Maritime Organization (IMO) addresses international shipping emissions, and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) addresses international aviation emissions."
The bid garnered some industry pushback during public consultation, while further questions remained over the uncertain future of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).
ExportNZ said in its submission it did not support the international aviation and shipping emissions being included in the target as it may lead to more forced costs on exporters.
It wanted national action plans - aligned with goals of the ICAO and the IMO - to be developed before including these emissions in the 2050 goal.
The Fertiliser Association said in its submission it believed their inclusion should be delayed, while IMO developed policies on transitioning the shipping sector.
It added that New Zealand acting alone instead of collectively would have limited influence on reducing international shipping emissions.
Climate advocates take part on a march in Auckland on 26 May, 2023, demanding New Zealand reduces its emissions and transition to regenerative agriculture. Photo: RNZ / Nick Monro
Agricultural emissions set to be priced by 2030
New Zealand's largest emitter by industry, agriculture, was taken out of the ETS in November last year following an election promise by the National Party.
But it committed to introducing a pricing model for agricultural emitters by 2030.
The change resulted in agricultural processors no longer facing mandatory public emissions reporting to the Environmental Protection Authority, unless they were captured by other disclosure rules.
Watts said agriculture was removed from the ETS to develop a fairer, more sustainable solution to agriculture emissions.
"This government supports our farmers and wants to ensure we aren't sending production offshore.
"The change has removed the reporting obligations for agricultural processors. However, it is important to note that this does not impact our ability to track emissions, which are still recorded and reported nationally."
Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
- New Zealand at 'significant risk' of missing 2050 climate target, government making it worse
- Government moves to restrict foresty on farmland will hamper climate efforts - Foresty Owners say
- 'A ray of sunshine': NZ litigants spurred on by international climate ruling
- Officials warn of damage to diplomatic relations in secret climate change memo
- Unambitious and undermined: why NZ’s latest climate pledge lacks the crucial ‘good faith’ factor
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/522333/new-zealand-s-future-climate-targets-in-jeopardy-new-calculations-find
