Winston Peters speaks at the UN over the weekend. Photo: AFP / LEONARDO MUNOZ
Analysis: Many people will be outraged over the government's decision not to recognise Palestinian statehood, as the humanitarian catastrophe on the ground in Gaza worsens.
Tens of thousands have marched to demand the coalition do more for Palestinians at the centre of what United Nations investigators are calling a genocide.
The government has long-called for an immediate ceasefire and condemned both Hamas' 7 October attacks, and Israel's military plan and illegal settlements in the West Bank.
Last week presented an opportunity for the coalition to further its response to the conflict but it broke from its traditional allies, with Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters telling the UN General Assembly: "We are not ready to make that gesture."
The government's rationale is that with Hamas in place as the de facto government of the Gaza Strip and no clarity on next steps, there is no fully legitimate and viable State of Palestine for New Zealand to recognise.
Official documents show Cabinet all but signed off on this decision on 15 September, sticking with its status quo "when not if" approach, on Peters' recommendation.
The minister listened to what others were saying about recognition on the ground in New York this week, and was clearly not persuaded that joining the chorus of countries formally acknowledging statehood would make any sort of difference.
In fact, he has repeatedly pointed out the government's concern such a move would be counterproductive.
"We've seen others make their statements and what happened the day after? It got worse. Our job is to ensure that what happens the day after is better long term and that the situation of conflict is over," he reporters after his UN speech.
The government's response to the moral outrage felt by many is that that it too, is morally outraged, but recognition does not change anything on the ground for Palestinians.
It is a painfully pragmatic position that might make sense on paper, but risks the perception New Zealand favours Israel over Palestine when it comes to a two-state solution.
Opposition parties have seized on it: Labour calling the government "an embarrassment", the Greens calling it "cowardly" and Te Pati Maori describing it as "colonial double standards".
Even those who study the minutiae of foreign policy, like Otago University Professor of International Relations Robert Patman, have expressed shock at the move.
"I thought that New Zealand would have been one of the first liberal democracies to break ranks with the United States and recognise a Palestinian state. I was wrong."
Peters has referred to the latest poll from RNZ-Reid Research as evidence this decision is the right one, saying "60 percent of New Zealanders did not voice support for recognition of the Palestinian state."
While broadly true, the poll results are a little more nuanced than that, with 42.5 percent in support of recognition, 22.1 percent against and a sizeable 35.4 per cent unsure.
An August Cabinet minute shows decision makers were well aware of the "considerable domestic public interest" in Israel and Palestine-related issues, and that they could have implications for New Zealand's social cohesion.
"While not on par with those seen in the UK, US, or Australia, these issues catalyse regular public protests and are the foreign policy issues which induce the highest volume of Ministerial correspondence and Official Information Act requests," the document says.
While other countries have responded to domestic pressure, the New Zealand coalition clearly has not been swayed by the groundswell of public protest, or the horrifying developments on the ground in Gaza.
"We'll only have one chance to do it and it's got to happen and be something that works in the long term," Peters said.
In the meantime, the government has increased its contribution to humanitarian aid funding for emergency supplies into Gaza by $10 million, bringing New Zealand's total contribution to $47.5 million.
It is a considerable amount for a country this size and something the coalition will keep referring to as evidence of its efforts to support Palestinians in Gaza.
However, these efforts will fall far too short for many who will no doubt return to the streets to protest in the coming weeks and demand the government do more.
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