How Trump's '100 percent tariff' on foreign films might affect New Zealand

Explainer - For a little country at the bottom of the world, New Zealand has a blockbuster impact on the film industry.

Everything from hit Minecraft and Avatar movies to Marvel superhero epics to Oscar-winning drama like The Power of the Dog has ties to New Zealand, as well as streaming television successes like Chief of War and Sweet Tooth. Tourists from all over the world still flock to Hobbiton decades after Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings saga hit cinemas.

But could that all be in danger after the US president announced a massive crackdown on "foreign movies"? Here's what you need to know.

What exactly has Trump announced?

Donald Trump said Tuesday he would be putting in place a 100 percent tariff on "foreign movies."

It's seen as an effort to draw back production dollars to the United States, which has seen competition from cheaper overseas locations grow in recent years.

"Our movie making business has been stolen from the United States of America, by other Countries, just like stealing 'candy from a baby,'" Trump wrote in a post on social media, adding that he would impose a 100 percent tariff on "any and all movies that are made outside of the United States."

Trump gave no other details and the White House has not released any plan.

The announcement was first signalled back in May by Trump, but his second pronouncement on the topic has left filmmakers and production studios worldwide trying to figure out exactly what could happen next.

New Zealand Film Commission Chief Executive Annie Murray told RNZ's Checkpoint that at the moment, Trump's talk remains just that - talk.

"I think we need to focus on the reality here that this is two social media posts with no detail, no policy, and until we see the detail and the policy, if it is forthcoming, then we'd be in a position to comment on impact, but at the moment, we're not going to speculate on that without any detail."

Other film leaders in New Zealand have reacted cautiously.

"Without any details of how it would actually be implemented it comes across as another vague threat," said Auckland film director and producer Ant Timpson.

Is a tariff on films even possible?

How would movies be tariffed - would Americans pay an extra price at the ticket counter for so-called "foreign" films or would they no longer be carried on streaming services? And what is a movie made "outside the United States"? Does that apply to location shooting, post-production work like special effects, or even creatives who aren't American citizens?

Nobody really can say at this point.

"He's the president, so you have to treat it seriously, but people are mostly just confused by this," one studio executive told Hollywood industry bible Variety.

Films are a global industry these days, and any scroll through the credits at the end of a movie will show filming locations and post-production done all over the world.

Even when a movie is "made in America" much of it may still be made using overseas services - for instance, Wētā FX has been involved in helping produce special effects for everything from Superman to Fantastic Four: First Steps to Captain America: Brave New World this year alone.

It also begs the question of whether movies are goods - such as automobiles, wood products and medicine - or a service. Many other tariffs Trump has announced are on goods.

"The film industry produces services," Murray said. "There's quite a significant difference so it's very difficult to see how a tariff would be implemented on a film or a TV show."

"In the old days these things were put into a box, there's physical media that was couriered around the world. That doesn't happen any more.

"Films and TV shows are streamed, they're digital services so it's very, very difficult - the tariff experts will tell you - it's very hard to see how something like this could be implemented."

Timpson's most recent film Bookworm, starring American actor Elijah Wood, was a fully funded New Zealand production but with some US investment.

Timpson pointed to a 1988 law called the Berman Amendment which states the president cannot regulate the importation of information material, which would include films, although that law hasn't been really put to the test before.

"Perhaps moving the goalposts will occur, though I suspect that might be more difficult than Trump realises," he said. "If the goalposts are moved, it would result in a massive own goal and impact many US companies."

"The bottom line is it would be a shitshow of epic proportions trying to enforce any such tariff."

The film industry in general has also been going through hard times with competition from streaming services and the body blow that the Covid-19 pandemic delivered to cinema attendance, which still hasn't recovered.

Even Wellington's Wētā FX announced job layoffs in August.

How could a tariff affect New Zealand?

Screen Producers NZ president Irene Gardiner told Stuff that if Trump's plan came to pass "it would be absolutely devastating for New Zealand".

That's because film and television production is a big driver in New Zealand's economy. A 2025 report by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade estimated one-third of New Zealand's $3.5 billion in film sector generation comes from America.

"About a billion a year comes in from the US so it's a significant industry and one we're very proud of," Murray said. "That work spans everything from location shooting to post-production to special effects."

"We're very famous for this work around the world, we produce incredibly high quality work from the likes of the wizards at Wētā FX in Wellington."

In the past year alone, stars like Brad Pitt shot the upcoming action film Heart of the Beast in Queenstown and Florence Pugh filmed the Netflix series East of Eden in Oamaru and Dunedin.

Tātaki Auckland Limited manages screen facilities like the Auckland Film Studios where productions like Chief of War or Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power have been shot.

"The screen industry is a vital, high-value contributor to Auckland's regional economy," its chief executive Nick Hill said. "In 2024 it generated $940 million GDP and employed 4300 people, with the region home to 1700 businesses."

"Beyond the thousands of jobs the screen sector supports, it fosters international partnerships that benefit all parties involved, including US studios, distributors, and creatives who routinely collaborate with New Zealand-based talent and production companies."

Hill said in regard to Trump's plan, "it is not clear how such a tariff would be imposed".

New Zealand has long been diversifying so it doesn't just rely on the US alone, the film commission's Murray told Checkpoint.

"We're not resting on our laurels, we've been out in the world and working on relationships over decades with other countries like India for example, which has a massive cinema market, 3000 films a year, so the opportunities there are significant as they are in the Middle East."

New Zealand has 18 co-production treaties with other countries in place too, she said.

That's not to say there's not some anxiety over Trump's pronouncements on social media.

"The tariff announcement back in May did create some nervousness - businesses need certainty in order to make their decisions."

What about tax incentives and rebates?

A big factor in drawing film productions to destinations is tax incentives.

New Zealand has offered up hefty rebates for some time and in May's budget another $577 million was announced for the International Screen Production Rebate.

"We are sending a clear message to the world: New Zealand is the best place in the world to make movies," Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis said. "Bring your productions here to take advantage of our talent and locations."

New Zealand isn't the only place offering such rebates, and despite Trump's claims Hollywood is dying, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced several new projects have been brought to that state after an expansion of that state's Film and Television Tax Credit Program.

While it's possible the tariff wars rumbling away may extend into the film industry, it's more likely the carrot of incentives will have a bigger impact than the stick of taxes.

"Many in the US film industry would rather have a level playing field to compete with offshore productions by working with localised incentive schemes but that doesn't create turbulence and column inches," Timpson said.

Trump's "Hollywood ambassador", actor Jon Voight, weighed in with a plan in May to draw production back to the US with federal tax incentives, tax code changes, co-production treaties and infrastructure subsidies.

California Senator Adam Schiff, a Democrat, also called for more film production to return to the US, but not by using tariffs.

"Congress should pass a bipartisan globally-competitive federal film incentive to bring back production and jobs, rather than levy a tariff that could have unintended and damaging consequences," he said.

As for Trump's claims that foreign countries are "stealing candy" from America with overseas production, Murray maintains that Aotearoa's industry remains strong and desirable.

"What they call runaway production has been going for many years. The New Zealand industry has been built up solidly over 20-plus years. We're very well positioned to attract production here, we're a very attractive market, we have excellent crew, Oscar-winning creatives."

The current exchange rate is also a strong factor in drawing productions.

"It's very good value for money here and you know, on top of that you get the very best people working on your shows and your films, so who wouldn't want to come here?"

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